Why Emily & Chantal are BOTH out of Brad's League: Debunking the Bachelor with Behavioral Economics

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I'm ashamed to admit that I got sucked into this season of The Bachelor. This is in spite of my general hatred for "reality" television and my particular hatred for anything that goes so blatantly out of its way to reinforce gender stereotypes.

My good friend Emmett recently asked me just what I was so fascinated by. At the time, the best I could do was lean on the old cliché of the train wreck you can't look away from. But as the season finale fades into the sunset - along with Brad and Emily's romance - I think I've finally put my finger on why the show was able to hold my attention. I couldn't stop asking myself, "why are all these women so smitten with a guy who is clearly emotionally underdeveloped and kind of a chauvinist pig to boot?"

And then I finally figured out the behavioral economics behind the whole thing, and it made total sense.

As anyone who has ever attended a condo auction, or been to the mall around Christmastime knows, a false sense of urgency can be created wherever marketers are successful in manipulating their audience's perception of the scarcity of the supply of an item and/or the time available to acquire it.

In the real world of dating, Brad Womack looks like damaged goods. He is, after all, a 38 year-old never-married guy with daddy issues and an explosive temper. But with a little help from his friends at ABC - in the form of an economically tilted dating environment - Brad suddenly looks like quite the prize to 25 women hand-picked just for him. 

Here's how it works: the producers reduce the available supply of guys to just one. Then they reduce the available supply of time to get to know him to a few measly dates over a mere six weeks. To accentuate the sense of scarcity, they insert rose ceremonies - a cruel musical chairs game in which the bachelor has fewer roses than women present, and not getting a rose means a one-way ticket off the Love Boat.

This would explain the desperate machinations of this veritable harem of beautiful women - many of them quite accomplished - to get a few minutes of attention from a guy who doesn't seem like such a catch once the lights are off and the cameras stop rolling.

Now add in the behavioral economic principle of loss-aversion - the idea that the psychological impact of failing at something after we have invested time, money, or emotional energy is twice that of the impact of success under the same circumstances. 

This explains the increasingly tearful devastation after each week's rose ceremony. These women swore up and down that they were falling in love after less than a month. But such instant certainty happens much less frequently in the real world. They were simply manipulated into having more invested more quickly than they would under normal circumstances - and that can feel an awful lot like love in the moment.

So never fear, Chantal. You're way better off with Jeff Razore - especially since you fell for him offscreen. 

And as for Ms. Emily - I used to hate on you because of the way you were edited on the show. You came across as the kind of girl we've all been conditioned to emulate - to our detriment. But you showed us your feisty side on "After the Final Rose" and now I like you and feel bad that you were manipulated into accepting a proposal from this loser.

Get out, girlfriend - while the getting's still good!

 

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Courting Energy Disaster: Where Fukushima Daiichi and Libya Meet

Japan

I've been glued to the news - along with the rest of the world - as the situation at the Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan spirals from bad to worse. There's not a lot more that I can do for the people of Japan. I've already donated what I can to Doctors Without Borders and the Red Cross. But as I've grappled with the feeling of utter helplessness I'm sure many of you share, I've also begun to grapple with a very disturbing notion - humankind really had this coming.

I don't mean to say that Japan in particular deserves this nuclear nightmare - of course they don't. And I don't believe that any supernatural force sent the earthquake or the tsunami to punish anyone for anything. What I mean is that humanity is living out of alignment with nature, and the very planet we live on. And the consequences are going to become still more devastating if we don't do something about it now.

It is colossal arrogance to assume that we can keep radioactive material under control at all - let alone indefinitely. We fly in the face of the natural order of things when we build waterfront nuclear reactors such as Daiichi in the very region that coined the term "tsunami" without even adequate flood protection for backup cooling systems.

And atomic disaster is only one of several kinds of meltdowns brought about by our shortsightedness around energy. One need look no further than the protests bubbling over throughout the Middle East to know that the United States' habit of propping up petro-dictatorships in order to keep a predictable flow of oil coming our way is finally catching up with us. And one need only look at the changing weather patterns and the melting ice caps to know that the result of burning all that petroleum is very soon going to catch up with us as well.

The Daiichi nuclear plant is one of more than 50 such plants in Japan designed to provide this technologically advanced society with the electricity it needs to move through daily life. But the earthquake that set off this chain reaction was rated a 9.0 on the Richter scale. The energy from that earthquake alone - if harnessed - could power a city the size of Los Angeles for a year

The earth below our feet is the greatest power plant we could ever ask for. Used properly, the same energy source that wrought such destruction can be harnessed to power human innovation and society planetwide.

So maybe instead of building nuclear reactors, pumping carbon into our atmosphere at alarming rates, and propping up despots, we could start innovating on ways to work in harmony with the planet we live on. It may not prevent another Sendai, but it will prevent another Fukushima Daiichi - and perhaps another Muammar Gaddafi as well.

 

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